Singapore Telecommunications Report Q2 2012

End-2011 results for Singapore’s telecoms industry have been made been available by the Infocomm Development Authority (IDA) as well as mobile operators Singapore Telecommunications (SingTel), StarHub and M1, which were subsequently factored into our forecast scenarios. Singapore’s mobile market reported disappointing growth in Q411 to bring the total to 7.756mn. Despite having one of the highest penetration rates in the region, we continue to see the subscriber base gradually increasing in the next few years, largely due to the continued demand for 3G services and multiple device ownership.

We envisage 8.770mn mobile subscribers in the country by end-2016, of which 7.531mn will be using 3G services. Although the rising popularity of mobile services caused the fixed-line market in many countries to contract, the sector has held up well in the last few years. We continue to see some growth potential with the number of subscribers increasing to 2.057mn in 2013. However, we expect the inevitable decline to take place from 2014 onwards as businesses and consumers embrace next-generation technologies. One of the threats to the traditional fixed-line market is Singapore’s Next Generation Nationwide Broadband Network, which allows better VoIP services. BMI forecasts the number of fixed and mobile broadband subscribers to increase to 11.097mn in 2016, up from 9.960mn in 2012.

Given the high 3G penetration rate, operators have turned their attention to next generation technologies, specifically LTE and fibre broadband, for the next revenue generating opportunity. However, we foresee limited adoption in 2012, given that existing options are more than sufficient to meet the needs of the mass market. According to the IDA, there were 98,500 fibre broadband subscribers at the end of December 2011, which was a 145% increase from June 2011. Meanwhile, SingTel and M1 are still in the are busy expanding their LTE networks, while StarHub has yet to announce a launch data for its 4G service. We expect subscriber growth to start gaining traction in 2013.

Singapore was ranked second in BMI’s latest Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings with a Telecoms Rating score of 73.9. Singapore overtook Australia, although the latter has a significantly larger population as Singapore excelled on the Country Rewards, Industry Risks and Country Risk components. However, although Singapore's headline CPI measure fell by 0.7 percentage points to 4.8% in January as a result of lower transport costs, we note that the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) core inflation measure, which strips out accommodation and transport costs, jumped by a greater-than-expected 0.9pp to 3.5%. While we expect further disinflation, the jump in core inflation underscores the growing risk that we may be entering a period of transitory stagflation in the city-state, and complicates the MAS's upcoming policy meeting in April 2012.

Singapore Telecommunication Industry Q2 2012

Published : April 2012          No. of Pages : 97          Price: US$1175 

   

Table Of contents

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Singapore Mobile SWOT
Singapore Wireline SWOT
Singapore Political SWOT
Singapore Economic SWOT
Singapore Business Environment SWOT
Risk/Reward Ratings
Asia Pacific
Table: Asia Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings
Singapore
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
ARPU
Table: Mobile ARPU – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (SGD)
Fixed Line
Table: Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Internet
Table: Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: Singapore Mobile Market, September 2011
Table: Singapore's Subscriber Base ('000)
ARPU
Table: ARPU Growth
3G
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins, 2008-2011
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Singapore Market Overview
Table: SingTel Mobile
Table: StarHub
Table: M1
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Selected NFC Developments, 2011
Country Outlook
SMS
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: Selected VAS Launched, 2010-2012
Fixed Line
International Traffic Lines
Internet
Broadband
Table: Composition Of Broadband Internet Access Subscribers (‘000)
Mobile Broadband
Pay-TV
Wireline Contract Wins
Table: Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Developments
Regulatory Environment And Industry Developments
Table: Division Of Regulatory Responsibilities In Singapore
Next Generation National Infocomm Infrastructure
Regulatory Developments
Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players – Singapore Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators – Financial Indicators, 2003-2011 (US$mn)
Company Monitor
Alcatel-Lucent
Opportunity For Improvement
Alcatel-Lucent's Recent Major Contracts In Asia
Selected Operator Profiles
Singapore Telecommunications (SingTel)
SingTel Mobile
StarHub
M1
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: Singapore Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2000-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000-2004
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources