Canada Power Report Q2 2012

A number of factors have prompted us to revise our forecasts for Canada’s power sector. As part of a revision of our historical data series, we have now factored in lower generation, consumption and net installed capacity for 2011. On top of that, a number of macroeconomic and sector-specific dynamics have been priced-in to our outlook. Most notably, according to BMI’s Country Risk team, the Canadian growth outlook will remain relatively positive; yet, a significant deceleration in activity is expected in the first half of 2012 as the global economy cools. As a consequence, while we still expect the power sector will avoid entering negative territory, we see power consumption growing only modestly (0.83%) in 2012. 
In the short term, we believe that much will depend on the external picture and its influence on Canada’s economy. With power demand highly correlated to economic activity, we thus see risks to both the upside and the downside to our power forecasts for 2012. 
That said, in the long-to-medium term we expect the country’s mature electricity market to see a moderation but a positive rise in generation and consumption. With regard to capacity, we highlight that Canada enjoys the advantage of a diverse and balanced electricity mix thanks to its abundant indigenous resources. Yet, despite Canada’s decision to withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol, environmental concerns are likely to limit a wider use and development of coal-fired power plants. Over the coming years, investment in capacity will thus focus primarily on refurbishing old plants and on green technology. 
In light of these elements, key themes for Canada’s power sector this quarter include: 
Ontario Power Generation awarded Aecon Construction and SNC-Lavalin Nuclear a US$600mn contract to refurbish four reactors at the Darlington nuclear plant in March 2012. The overhaul will enable the reactors to operate for another 25 to 30 years, with both having reached mid-life. The contract is for the planning phase (which will run from 2012 to 2016) of the Darlington Retube and Feeder Replacement Project. The execution phase of the project will run from 2016 to 2023. 
The Canadian province of Alberta is to go ahead with the construction of two 500 kilovolt (kV) direct current north-south power transmission lines. The CAD3bn (US$3bn) project was first proposed in 2003. The lines are designed to transport electricity from coal-fired power generation stations near Edmonton to the province’s southern region. The project has been delayed due to opposition from landholders along the route and critics who claimed that costs are too high, citing options such as domestically located natural gas turbines as better alternatives. 
French construction conglomerate Alstom secured a contract from Canadian state-owned utility Hydro-Québec to upgrade the 5,616MW Centrale Robert-Bourassa hydropower plant on the La Grande River in January 2012. The contract for the plant, which contains 16 generator units, is worth around EUR50mn (US$64.2mn). The first upgraded unit is expected to become operational in autumn 2013

Canada Power Industry

Published : May 2012                No. of Pages : 63                      Price: US$1175

 
Table of Content

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
Canada Power SWOT 7
Global Industry Overview 8
Regional Industry Overview .. 12
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 16
Canada Snapshot (Macro) 16
Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 16
Country Snapshot: Power Sector . 16
Canada Forecast Scenario 17
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity ... 17
Table: Canada Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 17
Table: Canada Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 .. 20
Table: Canada Total Electricity Consumption By Sector Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 24
Table: Canada Total Electricity Consumption By Sector Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 ... 25
Table: Canada’s Nuclear Power Reactors ... 32
Electricity Consumption 34
Table: Canada Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 34
Table: Canada Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 ... 34
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports . 36
Table: Canada Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 36
Table: Canada Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021 36
Table: Canada Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 ... 36
Table: Canada Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 36
Key Policies/Market Structure ... 38
Regulation and Competition 38
Table: Canadian Power Industry – Structural Models . 39
Table: Canadian Power Industry – Regulation 39
Sustainable Energy Policies . 40
Pricing . 41
Key Projects Database . 43
Table: Major Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids . 43
Risk/Reward Ratings .. 46
Developed Countries Power Regional Risk/Reward Ratings ... 46
Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 47
Canada Power Risk/Reward Ratings ... 49
Rewards ... 49
Risks . 50
Competitive Landscape/Company Monitor . 51
BC Hydro . 51
EPCOR 51
Hydro One ... 51
Maritime Electric . 52
Ontario Power . 52
Newfoundland Power ... 52
Nova Scotia Power ... 53
SaskPower ... 53
Enmax .. 53
Energie NB Power ... 53
ATCO ... 54
Glossary of Terms .. 55
Table: Glossary of Terms . 55
Methodology And Sources 56
Industry Forecasts 56
Power Industry - Data Methodology 57
Generation and Consumption Data . 57
Electricity Generation Capacity Data .. 58
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 59
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 61
Sources 62