Chile Tourism Report Q3 2012

The Chile tourism report examines the strong long-term potential currently being offered by the local tourism industry, but cautions that a likely economic slowdown in neighbouring Argentina over 2012 may well impact on arrival numbers from Chile’s main tourism source market later in the year. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by some of the leading players in the Chilean tourism sector (airlines and hotel chains), as they seek to maximise the tremendous growth opportunities being offered by the local market at the present time.
This quarter, BMI has upgraded its forecasts for tourist arrivals to 31% growth over 2012-2016, to 4.5mn tourist arrivals. Over the same period, we now expect tourism receipts to increase by 44.3% and total around US$3.7bn by end-2016.
Looking at preliminary indications for the current year, arrivals over the first quarter soared by 14.4% to 1.19mn, according to figures from Chile’s National Tourism Service (Servicio Nacional de Turismo Chile, Sernatur). Arrivals from South America showed the strongest growth, up by 17.7%, at 878,500.
There were significant increases in arrivals from Argentina – 543,737, up 23.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) – and Brazil – 89,132, up 20.3% y-o-y.
For 2012, Sernatur has indicated that it will focus on the following ‘priority’ markets: Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, Spain, the UK and the US, where it will be launching additional marketing campaigns.
The Chilean authorities are also looking to boost arrivals from Colombia, Peru and Australia. Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
1. BMI has revised up its estimates for tourism arrivals and tourist receipts over our forecast period to 2016, in light of the strong full-year performance in 2011 and with early indications of another positive year in 2012.
2. BMI believes that arrivals from Brazil can show a 44% increase between 2012 and 2016, to reach 519,000 tourists. This will also see Brazil displace Peru as the second most important source market for Chilean tourism (behind Argentina) during 2012.
3.BMI welcomes the ongoing expansion of Santiago Airport, which will increase capacity and improve aging infrastructure. However, we would caution that passenger numbers could already have surpassed the 14mn passengers per annum mark by 2014, making the case for additional investment from the government so that capacity can run ahead of demand over the coming decade

Chile TourismQ3 2012 Industry

Published : May 2012                 No. of Pages : 63              Price:US$1175

Table of Content

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Chile Tourism SWOT . 6
Chile Political SWOT . 7
Chile Economic SWOT... 8
Chile Business Environment SWOT ... 9
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 10
Arrivals . 10
Table: Arrivals Data, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless otherwise stated) 11
Accommodation 11
Table: Accommodation Data, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless otherwise stated) ... 12
Expenditure ... 12
Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2016 .. 13
Inbound Tourism ... 13
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless otherwise stated) .. 14
Outbound Tourism 15
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless otherwise stated) 16
Market Overview – Travel . 17
Commercial Airlines . 17
Cruise Ships .. 18
Global Oil Products Price Outlook ... 19
Table: BMI’s Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 19
Market Overview – Hospitality .. 28
Accommodation 28
Tourism Policy .. 29
Business Environment Outlook ... 33
Table: Latin America Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings ... 33
BMI’s Security Ratings . 33
Table: Latin America Security Ratings 34
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings .. 34
Chile’s Security Risk Ratings 35
Latin America Security Overview.. 36
Latin America In A Global Context .. 36
Challenges And Threats To Security 37
Global Assumptions .. 51
Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016 ... 51
Developed States ... 52
Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 53
Emerging Markets . 54
Table: Emerging Markets’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 .. 54
Consensus . 55
Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts, 2012 And 2013 55
Company Profiles .. 56
LAN Airlines 56
Panamericana Hoteles . 58
Sky Airline 58
BMI Methodology ... 59
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 59
Tourism Industry .. 59
Tourism Ratings – Methodology .. 60
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators . 61
Table: Weighting of Components . 62
Sources 62

Table: Arrivals Data, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless otherwise stated) . 11

Table: Accommodation Data, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless otherwise stated) . 12

Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2016 . 13

Table: Inbound Tourism, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless otherwise stated) . 14

Table: Outbound Tourism, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless otherwise stated) . 16

Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 . 19

Table: Latin America Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings . 33

Table: Latin America Security Ratings . 34

Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings . 34

Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016 . 51

Table: Developed States' Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 . 53

Table: Emerging Markets' Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 . 54

Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts, 2012 And 2013 . 55

Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators . 61

Table: Weighting of Components . 62