Romania Power Report Q2 2012

While Romania’s plans to greatly expand its nuclear generation capacity are in disarray, there is growing support for the country’s wind power programme. Low electricity prices threaten investment in generating capacity and transmission infrastructure, so consumers are facing the prospect of sustained prices increases over the medium term as Romanian pricing moves closer to the EU average and international involvement in power investment grows. 

On January 18 2012, the Romanian government approved a plan to sell 10% stakes in state-owned power producers Hidroelectrica and Nuclearelectrica. A secondary public offering for a 15% stake in Romanian power grid operator Transelectrica was scheduled to take place in March 2012, potentially raising RON189.6mn. The Economy Ministry holds 73.68% in Transelectrica, while investment fund Fondul Proprietatea holds 13.49%.
Key trends and recent developments in the Romanian electricity market include:
1.During the 2012-2021 period, Romania’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 3.80%, reaching 83.1 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 3.7% gain in gas-fired supply, a 7.8% rise in nuclear generation and a 16.7% average increase in renewables-based supply, offsetting a 1.0% average annual decline in oil-fired electricity. 

2.Following an assumed 2.1% increase in 2011 real GDP, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 3.9% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to fall slightly from the current level of 21.4mn during the period, but net power consumption looks set to increase from 49.8TWh to 66.0TWh by 2021. During the 2012-2021 period, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 2.8%.
3.In November 2011, according to data from the European Energy Portal, the average household electricity price (3,500kWh per annum consumption) in Romania was EUR0.1207 per kWh, which is well below that of most European rivals. In the Czech Republic, for example, the price was EUR0.1541/kWh, compared with EUR0.1600/kWh in Poland, EUR0.1787/kWh in Hungary, EUR0.2164/kWh in Italy and EUR0.1676/kWh in the UK.
4.Thanks largely to the forecast rise in net generation, growth of which outpaces the underlying demand trend, Romania’s power supply surplus may increase over the next ten years. A falling percentage of transmission and distribution losses – from around 11.5% to 10.8% – will help protect the export trade. The theoretical net export capability by 2021 is put at 8.2TWh. 

Romania Power Industry Q2 2012

Published : June 2012                    No. of Pages : 61                            Price: US$1175 

Table of Content

Executive Summary . 5

SWOT Analysis . 6
Romania Power SWOT .. 6
Global Industry Overview 7
Regional Industry Overview .. 11
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 15
Romania Snapshot (Macro) . 15
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 15
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . 15
Romania Forecast Scenario .. 16
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity ... 16
Table: Romania Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 .. 16
Table: Romania Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 19
Table: Romania Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016. 21
Table: Romania Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021. 22
Electricity Consumption 29
Table: Romania Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts 2008-2016 29
Table: Romania Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021 ... 29
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports ... 31
Table: Romania Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 ..
Table: Romania Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Table: Romania Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016.. 31
Table: Romania Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 ... 31
Key Policies/Market Structure .. 34
Regulation and Competition 34
Sustainable Energy Policies. 35
Pricing . 37
Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States, As Of November 2011 37
Key Projects Database . 39
Table: Romania Key Projects – Power Plants And Transmission Grids .. 39
Risk/Reward Ratings .. 41
CEE Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 41
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 43
Romania Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 44
Rewards ... 44
Risks 44
Competitive Landscape . 46
Transelectrica .. 48
Enel .. 48
E.ON 49
Termoelectrica . 49
Hidroelectrica .. 49
ÈEZ .. 49
Company Profiles ... 51
Hidroelectrica .. 51
Glossary of Terms .. 53
Table: Glossary of Terms . 53
Methodology And Sources 54
Industry Forecasts ... 54
Power Industry – Data Methodology ... 55
Generation and Consumption Data . 55
Electricity Generation Capacity Data .. 56
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ... 57
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 59
Sources 60

Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 15

Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . 15

Table: Romania Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 16

Table: Romania Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 19

Table: Romania Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016. 21

Table: Romania Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021. 22

Table: Romania Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts 2008-2016 . 29

Table: Romania Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 29

Table: Romania Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016

Table: Romania Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 .

Table: Romania Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016. 31

Table: Romania Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 31

Table: Electricity Prices In the EU Member States, As Of November 2011 . 37

Table: Romania Key Projects – Power Plants And Transmission Grids . 39

Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . 43

Table: Glossary of Terms . 53

Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 59